सऊदी अरब की इस घोषणा के बाद दुनियां हैरान, परेशान : रिपोर्ट

तेल उत्पादक देशों के संगठन ओपेक और ओपेक प्लस के फ़ैसले से वैश्विक बाज़ार में तेल की क़ीमत बढ़ गई है.

सोमवार सुबह एशियाई बाज़ार में तेल की क़ीमत क़रीब छह फ़ीसदी बढ़ गई. रविवार को सबसे पहले सऊदी अरब ने अचानक से तेल उत्पादन में हर दिन 10 लाख बैरल से ज़्यादा कटौती की घोषणा की थी.

सऊदी अरब की इस घोषणा के बाद वेस्ट टेक्सस इंटरमीडिएट कॉन्ट्रैक्ट में 5.74 फ़ीसदी यानी प्रति बैरल 80.01 डॉलर का उछाल आया है.

वहीं ब्रेंट में 5.6 फ़ीसदी यानी प्रति बैरल 84.42 डॉलर का उछाल आया है. सऊदी अरब के साथ इराक़, यूएई, अल्जीरिया और ओमान ने फ़ैसला लिया है कि उत्पादन में कटौती अगले महीने मई से शुरू होगी और साल के अंत तक जारी रहेगी.

पिछले साल अक्टूबर में ओपेक प्लस ने हर दिन तेल उत्पादन में 20 लाख बैरल की कटौती की घोषणा की थी.

अमेरिका सऊदी अरब पर दबाव डालता रहा है कि वह तेल उत्पादन में कटौती ना करे लेकिन सऊदी अरब ने झुकने से इनकार कर दिया है.

पिछले साल जुलाई में अमेरिका के राष्ट्रपति जो बाइडन ने सऊदी अरब का दौरा किया था. राष्ट्रपति बाइडन का मक़सद था कि वह क्राउन प्रिंस को तेल उत्पादन बढ़ाने पर राज़ी करें लेकिन सऊदी ने उनकी बात नहीं मानी थी.

तेल उत्पादन में कटौती की घोषणा के बाद से वैश्विक महंगाई बढ़ने का ख़तरा मंडरा रहा है. दुनिया भर के केंद्रीय बैंक ब्याज़ दरों में बढ़ोतरी कर सकते हैं.

क्राउन प्रिंस मोहम्मद बिन सलमान अमेरिका नीतियों को लगातार ख़ारिज कर रहे हैं और अपने हितों के हिसाब से फ़ैसले ले रहे हैं.

क्राउन प्रिंस मोहम्मद बिन सलमान ने बाइडन के सऊदी दौरे से पहले अमेरिकी मैगज़ीन ‘द अटलांटिक’ को इंटरव्यू दिया था. इस इंटरव्यू में उन्होंने कहा था, ”दुनिया में हर देश की स्थापना अलग-अलग विचारों और मूल्यों के आधार पर हुई है. मिसाल के तौर पर अमेरिका लोकतंत्र, स्वतंत्रता और मुक्त अर्थव्यवस्था जैसे मूल्यों के आधार पर बना है. लोग इन्हीं मूल्यों के आधार पर एकजुट रहते हैं. लेकिन क्या सभी लोकतंत्र अच्छे हैं? क्या सभी लोकतंत्र ठीक से काम कर रहे हैं? निश्चित तौर पर नहीं.”

क्राउन प्रिंस ने कहा था, ””हमारा मुल्क इस्लाम के मूल्यों और विचारों की बुनियाद पर बना है. इसमें क़बाइली संस्कृति है, अरब की संस्कृति है. साथ ही सऊदी की संस्कृति और मान्यताएं हैं. यही हमारी आत्मा है. अगर हम इसे छोड़ देते हैं तो देश नष्ट हो जाएगा. हमारे लिए सवाल यह है कि सऊदी अरब को विकास और आधुनिकीकरण के सही रास्ते पर कैसे लाया जाए. इसी तरह के सवाल अमेरिका के लिए हैं कि कैसे लोकतंत्र, मुक्त बाज़ार और स्वतंत्रता को सही रास्ते पर रखा जाए. यह सवाल इसलिए ज़रूरी है क्योंकि ये ग़लत रास्ते पर जा सकते हैं.”

उन्होंने कहा था, ””इसलिए हम अपने मूल्यों से दूर नहीं होंगे क्योंकि यही हमारी आत्मा है. सऊदी अरब में पवित्र मस्जिदें हैं और इन्हें कोई हटा नहीं सकता. हमारी यह ज़िम्मेदारी है कि ये पवित्र मस्जिदें हमेशा रहें और हम मुल्क को सऊदी के लोगों के लिए, इस इलाक़े के लिए सही रास्ते रास्ते पर रखना चाहते हैं. शांति और सह-अस्तित्व के आधार पर हम चाहते हैं कि बाक़ी दुनिया में चीज़ों को जोड़ें.’

Zaid Ahmd 
@realzaidzayn
BREAKING 🇸🇦 : #Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el Sisi meets #Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in #Jeddah

Zaid Ahmd 
@realzaidzayn
Crude oil prices have jumped around $5 per barrel after #OPEC+ announced it was cutting production

Going Underground
@GUnderground_TV

Russia state-affiliated media
BREAKING: Saudi Arabia🇸🇦 will invite Syria’s🇸🇾 President Bashar Al-Assad to attend the Arab Summit being held in Riyadh on the 19th of May. (Reuters)

This followed reports of the UAE🇦🇪 and Russia🇷🇺 negotiating normalisation of relations between Syria and Saudi Arabia.

The US’…

Going Underground
@GUnderground_TV
·
Apr 2

Russia state-affiliated media
BREAKING: Saudi Arabia🇸🇦 will invite Syria’s🇸🇾 President Bashar Al-Assad to attend the Arab Summit being held in Riyadh on the 19th of May. (Reuters)

This followed reports of the UAE🇦🇪 and Russia🇷🇺 negotiating normalisation of relations between Syria and Saudi Arabia.

The US’…

Spriter
@Spriter99880
Saudi Arabia to invite Syria’s Assad to Arab League summit next month

Some fascinating history and geopolitics. ⚡️OPEC+ just cut oil production, which will help Russia a lot. It's quite amazing that Putin has managed to have such close relations with Saudi Arabia.

There are myriad of compelling and historic reasons why Russia and Saudi Arabia… pic.twitter.com/A8xC1gI13I

— S.L. Kanthan (@Kanthan2030) April 3, 2023

Greg Abbott
@GregAbbott_TX

OPEC makes a surprise 1 million-barrel oil production cut.

Texas might just counter that with a 1 million barrel production INCREASE.

OPEC+ Makes Shock Million-Barrel Cut in New Inflation Risk

Saudi leads cartel with its own 500,000 supply reduction
The White House says the move by OPEC+ is ill-advised

OPEC+ announced a surprise oil production cut of more than 1 million barrels a day, abandoning previous assurances that it would hold supply steady and posing a new risk for the global economy.

It’s a significant reduction for a market where — despite the recent price fluctuations — supply was looking tight for the latter part of the year. Oil futures soared as much as 8% in New York on Monday while gasoline also gained, adding to inflationary pressures that may force central banks around the world to keep interest rates higher for longer.

ALERT: Saudi Arabia and other OPEC nations announced they will be cutting oil production.

Expect rising gas prices immediately.

Biden depleted 260 million barrels from the nation’s oil reserves. Sold to China and India. pic.twitter.com/4PVRUGw83s

— .*Funkytown™*. (@Funkytown_01) April 3, 2023

The international Brent benchmark traded near $84 a barrel at 1:30 p.m. in Singapore, while US gasoline jumped as much as 4.5%. Any increase in the cost of transportation fuels tends to be closely monitored by American politicians, particularly ahead of the summer season when more people take road trips and vacations.

Top oil analysts issued calls for $100 crude after the decision, with some expecting worldwide supply-demand balances to be in deficit earlier than expected. That view was reflected in the strengthening of Brent’s backwardation — where the premium of prompt shipments rises relative to later supplies in a closely watched signal of tightness.

The surprise move could once again flare tensions between the US and Saudi Arabia, a regional partner whose relationship with President Joe Biden’s administration has been tense. The White House said that the new cuts were ill-advised.

Wall Street Silver
@WallStreetSilv

All of the announced oil cuts today by OPEC and non-OPEC are 1.649 million bpd.

Russia 500k bpd
Saudi Arabia 500k
Iraq 211k
UAE 144k
Kuwait 128k
Kazakhstan 78k
Algeria 48k
Oman 40k

The initial impact of the cuts, starting next month, will add up to about 1.1 million barrels a day. From July, due to the extension of Russia’s existing supply reduction, there will be about 1.6 million barrels a day less crude on the market than previously expected. Russia initially moved to lower production in March, in retaliation against western sanctions prompted by its invasion of Ukraine.

Riyadh said on Sunday the reductions were a “precautionary measure aimed at supporting the stability of the oil market.”

Relations between Saudi Arabia and the US have been fraught since last year, when the White House’s efforts to cajole the kingdom into pumping more oil fell flat.

Biden made a controversial trip to the region last July, but came away without any commitments on production. Then in October, when OPEC+ made a surprise cut of about 2 million barrels day just weeks before the US midterm elections, Biden vowed there would be “consequences” for Saudi Arabia, but the administration did not follow through.

Economic Interest
The move on Sunday — announced a day before the OPEC+ monitoring committee is due to meet — was an unprecedented way to decide policy for the group, which has had to adapt in recent years first to the demand shock of the pandemic and now to the war in Ukraine and the fallout of sanctions.

As recently as Friday, delegates had been indicating privately that there was no intention to change their production limits.

Oil fell to a 15-month low last month due to the turmoil caused by the banking crisis, but prices had recovered as the situation showed signs of stabilizing. Brent crude closed just below $80 a barrel on Friday, up 14% from its March trough.

But that may not be high enough for the group. Back in October, the last time it made a massive cut that took consumers aback, Nigerian Minister of State for Petroleum Resources Timipre Sylva said the group “wants prices around $90.”

For its part, Saudi Arabia is embarking on a huge swathe of spending running into trillions of dollars to transform its economy into a tourism hot-spot and global logistics and business hub. While much of that spending is driven by a few sovereign wealth funds that may not directly benefit from higher crude prices, government officials have said they will use surpluses to help accelerate domestic investments.

“We see this closely held decision as just one more indication that the Saudi leadership is making its oil production decisions with a clear eye to their own economic self-interests,” said Helima Croft, head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets LLC.

For its part, Saudi Arabia is embarking on a huge swathe of spending running into trillions of dollars to transform its economy into a tourism hot-spot and global logistics and business hub. While much of that spending is driven by a few sovereign wealth funds that may not directly benefit from higher crude prices, government officials have said they will use surpluses to help accelerate domestic investments.

“We see this closely held decision as just one more indication that the Saudi leadership is making its oil production decisions with a clear eye to their own economic self-interests,” said Helima Croft, head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets LLC.

COUNTRY SIZE OF CUT (B/D)
Saudi Arabia 500,000
Russia 500,000
Iraq 211,000
UAE 144,000
Kuwait 128,000
Kazakhstan 78,000
Algeria 48,000
Oman 40,000

The actual reduction in supply may be smaller than the advertised volumes of around 1.6 million barrels a day, assuming that OPEC+ sticks with current reference levels for the cuts. Most OPEC+ members, like Iraq and Kazakhstan, are already producing significantly below their present quotas as they contend with under-investment and operational disruptions, and so may not need to make further curbs. RBC’s Croft estimated the cuts would amount to about 700,000 barrels a day from the core OPEC group.

Still, the move will have surprised the market. All fourteen traders and analysts polled last week by Bloomberg predicted no change. They were taking their lead from Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, who had said last month that the current OPEC+ production targets are “here to stay for the rest of the year, period.”

From time to time, the prince has delighted in wrong-footing speculators with unexpected supply changes. During one such intervention he warned that short-sellers would be “ouching like hell,” and for crude bears this latest move may be similarly painful.

— With assistance by Fiona MacDonald, Khalid Al Ansary, Omar Tamo, Jordan Fabian and Nayla Razzouk

(Updates with prices, reaction from oil analysts from fifth paragraph.)

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