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अमेरिका और चीन की तक़रार आख़िरकार युद्ध तक पहुंच गई : रिपोर्ट

वाशिंगटन, एजेंसियां। अमेरिका और चीन के बीच व्यापार को लेकर शुरू हुई तकरार आखिरकार शीत युद्ध तक पहुंच गई है। चीन को लेकर अपने नए विजन डॉक्यूमेंट (दृष्टि पत्र) में अमेरिका ने उस पर कायदे और कानून पर आधारित वैश्विक व्यवस्था का दुरुपयोग कर उसे चीनी कम्युनिस्ट पार्टी (सीसीपी) की विचारधारा और हितों के अनुकूल बनाने का आरोप लगाया है। साथ ही हितों के टकराव में उसके मिल रही चुनौतियों का सीधा जवाब देने की घोषणा की है।

जारी किया विजन डॉक्यूमेंट
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‘यूनाइडेट स्टेट स्ट्रेटेजिक एप्रोच टू द पीपुल्स रिपब्लिक ऑफ चाइना’ शीर्षक से अमेरिका के इस विजन डॉक्यूमेंट को व्हाइट हाउस ने जारी किया है। वैसे तो इस दस्तावेज में शीत युद्ध शब्द का प्रयोग नहीं किया गया है, लेकिन उसका मकसद साफ है। अमेरिका ने माना है कि दोनों बड़ी शक्तियां अपने हितों की उचित तरीके से रक्षा करने के लिए आमने-सामने हैं। अमेरिका ने सीसीपी से मिल रही प्रत्यक्ष चुनौतियों का जवाब देने का एलान किया है।

रिपोर्ट में कहा गया है कि पीपुल्स रिपब्लिक ऑफ चीन (पीआरसी) के प्रति अमेरिकी नीति अभी तक इस उम्मीद पर आधारित थी कि उसके साथ संबंधों को मजबूत बनाने से वहां मौलिक अर्थव्यवस्था और राजनीतिक खुलापन को बल मिलेगा और विश्व व्यवस्था में चीन एक जिम्मेदार राष्ट्र की तरह बर्ताव करेगा।

40 साल के बाद यह प्रमाणित हो गया है कि अमेरिका चीन के आर्थिक और राजनीतिक सुधार की उम्मीद को खत्म करने की भावना को नहीं समझ पाया। पिछले दो दशकों में वहां सुधार धीमा, बाधित या उल्टा रहा। पीआरसी का तेज आर्थिक विकास और विश्व के अन्य देशों के साथ संबंध नागरिक केंद्रित नहीं रहे हैं। बल्कि उसने खुली और नियमों पर आधारित व्यवस्था का दुरुपयोग अंतरराष्ट्रीय व्यवस्था को सीपीपी के हितों और विचारधारा के मुताबिक बनाने की कोशिश की है।

अमेरिकी राष्ट्रपति डोनाल्ड ट्रंप ने एक बार फिर दोहराया है कि कोरोना वायरस चीन से ही निकला है और उनका देश इसे हल्के में नहीं लेगा। मिशिगन में अफ्रीकी-अमेरिकी नेताओं के साथ बैठक में भाग लेते हुए ट्रंप ने कहा, ‘यह चीन से आया। हम इसको लेकर खुश नहीं हैं। हमने व्यापार समझौते पर हस्ताक्षर किए थे, अभी उसकी स्याही सुखी भी नहीं है कि अचानक यह आ गया। हम इसे हल्के में नहीं लेने वाले।’ चीन के प्रति ट्रंप बहुत सख्त बयान देते रहे हैं, लेकिन अभी तक उन्होंने यह संकेत नहीं दिया है कि वह क्या कदम उठाने जा रहे हैं।

ट्रंप ने कहा कि अमेरिका दवा और चिकित्सकीय उपकरणों के निर्माण के क्षेत्र में अग्रणी बना रहेगा। ट्रंप ने कहा कि वैश्विक महामारी ने एक बार फिर साबित कर दिया है कि एक मजबूत राष्ट्र होने के लिए अमेरिका को उत्पादक देश होना पड़ेगा। उनका उद्देश्य अमेरिका को एक उत्पाद देश बनाने का है। अमेरिका दवा और मेडिकल उपकरणों के निर्माण के क्षेत्र में दुनिया का प्रमुख देश बनेगा। हम अपनी दवा कंपनियों को वापस ला रहे हैं।

 

Xi will work to ensure that China emerges as the centrepoint of the global economy, the way the US has been since 1943.

After US President Donald J. Trump, Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary Xi Jinping is the most discussed world leader these days. The two others who qualify in the top four spots are not Angela Merkel or Boris Johnson, but Vladimir Putin and Narendra D. Modi. Love them or hate them, these are four individuals who are impossible for the world to ignore. In this group, China and the US are in a class of their own where the size of their economies are concerned, with India a considerable distance behind, but ahead of Russia. While the first two are already superpowers, India hopefully will qualify within a decade (given smart policy) and Russia after that. Neither rapid growth nor the retardation of growth through bypassing possible synergies happens by accident. Both outcomes are the result of policy. Smart policy promotes growth, while dysfunctional ones slow it down. Now that the world economy is wrestling with the shock of the Covid-19 pandemic, it is unlikely that China will soon regain the fighter jet speed that its economy achieved for a generation. However, it is clearly the intention of Xi to once again place China at the top of the growth tables despite for some years, his country being overtaken by India. The Sonia-Chidambaram effect on the Indian economy has been profound, and while many ministries (and the PMO) have shaken off that legacy, a few have not. It is to be seen whether this year it will be China or India that has the higher rate of growth. The Covid shock has opened the door for opportunities for India if the country avoids the community transmission stage to a substantial degree because of Prime Minister Modi’s decisive step of first barring the world from India and later making the entire country stay at home for a 21-day period. After that period, there will, hopefully, not be a total lockdown but a hybrid scheme that ensures a restart to the economy and its transformation and renewal besides relief from the virus.

General Secretary Xi, meanwhile, will be working to ensure that China emerges as the Middle Kingdom once again, the centrepoint of the global economy, the way the US has been since 1943. In such a plan, ensuring that the Chinese currency gains acceptance as the reserve and trading currency of choice will play a lead role. Xi knows that the US dollar being the reserve currency of the globe is both the cause as well as the effect of US predominance in the global order. Xi is part of a trio of “Red Emperors”—Communist Party supremos who were as powerful as predecessors in the Han or Tang dynasties. The other two in the trio are Mao Zedong, followed by Deng Xiaoping. The first, Mao Zedong, systematically consolidated China into a unified country bigger in area than that ruled by past dynasties such as the Qing or the Tang. Once such a unification took place and got stabilised, Deng Xiaoping used smart policy to make China a global economic force, with the aim of eventually making it the biggest. Deng was able to succeed in this because Mao had demolished the entire top crust of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) during the Cultural Revolution. The pre-Cultural Revolution CCP leadership, had they remained, would never have allowed Deng Xiaoping to introduce capitalism with CCP Characteristics, a form of economic system that prevails in the country to this day. While Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao oversaw substantial changes, these were nowhere near the scale contemplated by Xi, which is designed to displace the US at the apex of the global economic and security pyramid before he demits office.

In this task, Xi needs to end the role of the dollar as the global reserve currency. Together with steps being taken by him, the General Secretary is banking on the headwinds faced by the US that get created through bad policy, just as President Ronald Reagan made bold and brilliant use of the atrophy of the USSR that began during the 18 years of stagnation and decline under Leonid Brezhnev (1964-1982). Without this advantage and the additional impetus for collapse created by the Tughlaq policies of Mikhail Gorbachev, the USSR may still have survived, provided that the economic system got a makeover. Gorbachev believed that the key to salvation of the USSR lay in making concessions to get bounty from the very countries that were impatiently waiting for the USSR to collapse. He was surprised and petulant when such assistance failed to materialize.

Now that the US is no longer the biggest consumer of but the biggest competitor to Middle Eastern crude, with China replacing it in the first role, the task of breaking the link between international oil trade and the dollar has been made easier. And given the way the US has proved to be a fickle partner, most recently to the Afghans and the Kurds by Trump suddenly joining hands with their bitterest foes, several of its allies are reconsidering the reliability of their reliance on the US for security. Such US behaviour is in contrast to the Sino-Russian alliance, which has stood by its traditional friends even when doing so is against their own national interests, as is the case of China with Pakistan.

Jiang Zemin focused on growth, and did not much care that China’s technology and plant was almost entirely imported. Hu Jintao aimed for self-sufficiency, and ramped up domestic design and production of higher-end items such as automobiles and even aircraft. Xi Jinping is looking to China establishing frontrunner status and advantage in the Knowledge Economy. He is ensuring that the country go digital, and is spending vast sums on innovation and hi-tech startups. Xi has a plan. Does Trump have another to ensure that the US-dominated status quo continues well into this century? The jury is out on this question, the answer to which will define 21st century geopolitics.


M.D. Nalapat

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